In STICK TO DRAWING COMICS MONKEY BRAIN, Dilbert creator, Scott Adams, shared the above sharp and snappy business advice on how to predict success. He continues by saying, "The only thing that predicts success is passion, even if only 10 percent of the consumers have it."
When the Dilbert comic strip first started in late 80s, Adams remembers most people didn't love it. However, about 10 percent of its readers did love it and many of them clipped-out the comic from the newspaper and shared it with their friends. These people were passionate about the humorous look at dysfunctional office life portrayed in Dilbert. They decorated their cubicles with Dilbert cartoons. Some even put together homemade books of Dilbert cartoons long before the first Dilbert book was sold. They loved Dilbert.
Scott Adams didn't worry about trying to make the Dilbert cartoon successful by making the indifferent reader passionate about Dilbert. Instead, he relied on Dilbert succeeding by fueling the passions of those most passionate about all things Dilbert.
A greater predictor of successful product introductions is to gain a passionate and loyal customer base, no matter how small in numbers they are.
This isn't an absolute predictor as the abandoned product graveyard is littered with products that failed despite attracting a small, passionate customer base. However, if your product only attracts indifferent customers and fails to attract passionate customers ... chances are, that product will not succeed.